Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
